Following President Emmanuel Macron's unexpected decision to dissolve the National Assembly, France is gearing up for a highly contentious legislative election on June 30 and July 7, 2024. This move, triggered by the far-right Rassemblement National’s (RN) significant gains in the recent European Elections and declining support for Macron’s Renaissance party, has sparked a frenzy of disinformation, conspiracy theories, and online vitriol. As France braces for the election, various actors - from domestic far-right groups to foreign influencers - are shaping the narrative with significant implications for the nation’s political landscape.

Far-Right and Conspiracy Ecosystems

French far-right actors and conspiracy theorists have seized the election announcement to propagate narratives of authoritarianism and fraud. They claim Macron’s dissolution of the National Assembly is a manoeuvre by the "Deep State" or global financial elites to turn France into a dictatorship. This rhetoric is intended to delegitimise the electoral process and dissuade voter participation. By revisiting old accusations of electoral fraud from Macron’s victory in previous elections these groups aim to deepen public distrust in democratic institutions.

Targeting At-Risk Groups

Online discussions around the election have been marred by antisemitic, misogynistic, Islamophobic, anti-immigrant, and anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric. The left-wing coalition, Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), is painted as a threat to traditional French values for promoting the rights of these groups. Paradoxically, Macron’s administration is criticised for its supposed leniency towards immigration and Islam, with the RN portrayed as the defender against these alleged threats. This toxic discourse not only polarises voters but also exacerbates social tensions.

Foreign Influence and Pro-Kremlin Narratives

The legislative campaign has also seen a surge in pro-Kremlin narratives, particularly from Russian state-sponsored actors. These narratives criticise Macron’s support for Ukraine and promote the RN as a viable alternative, leveraging the party’s historical ties with Russia. By framing Macron as a globalist who prioritises international agendas over national interests these actors aim to sway public opinion in favour of the RN.

Historical Context and Political Implications

President Macron’s use of Article 12 to dissolve the National Assembly is a rare political manoeuvre, last employed by Jacques Chirac in 1997. This decision comes in the wake of the RN’s victory in the European elections and the rising popularity of the NFP. Current polls suggest a fragmented outcome, with the presidential majority at 22%, the NFP at 29%, and the RN at 38%. Such a result could lead to cohabitation, where the president and the government come from opposing parties.

Marine Le Pen, the RN’s prominent figure, has expressed her readiness to form a government with party leader Jordan Bardella as a potential Prime Minister. On the left, the NFP, made up by a coalition of parties including the Socialist Party, Green Party, La France Insoumise, aims to prevent the far-right from securing a majority. The high stakes and the charged political climate suggest a fiercely contested election with profound consequences for France’s future.

Violence and Intimidation

The announcement of the elections has already led to a spike in far-right violence and intimidation. Incidents include assaults on individuals perceived to be from marginalised groups, attacks on political candidates, and harassment of volunteers. These actions underscore the volatile environment and the lengths some actors will go to influence the outcome.

Conclusion

As France approaches its legislative elections, the confluence of far-right extremism, conspiracy theories, and foreign interference presents a complex information  landscape. The election’s outcome will determine the balance of power in the French government and will reflect the resilience of France’s democratic institutions against concerted efforts to undermine them. The battle to control the narrative is raging online and whichever narratives prove most popular will shape the future of French politics in unpredictable ways.